Work with data

Keep a forecasting notebook Forecasting notebook

Write your own questions about public outcomes, say how likely you think each one is, and settle each from a public source when its day comes. Tillyard dates every entry, so nothing can be added back afterwards.

Open now

In detail

Writes their own questions about public outcomes, each with a public source and a day that settles it; logs a probability, updates it, and resolves it from the source

What you leave with

A dated notebook, and a calibration table only they see

Who confirms it

Tillyard dated each entry on the day it was written and locked it after 24 hours. What the entries say is your own account.

What goes on your résumé

Projects: Kept a forecasting notebook for 12 weeks: 34 dated forecasts on 12 public questions, each locked when written, 9 resolved from public sources
An example. Yours will say what you did.

When it is recorded

Once it has 8 forecasts, 4 weeks, 2 settled from a public source, you can close it and put one line on your Record. The line starts as visible to you alone.

Not for here: structures, pressure systems, mains electricity, vehicles, medical devices, weapons, or advice to a real person on law, tax, medicine, engineering or investments.

Start

You need a membership to start. It is free to students.

Join with your college email to start Keep a forecasting notebook

Before you start

You own what you make here. If you made it for a class, a lab or an employer, someone else may have a claim on it, so leave it out. You do this unpaid and by choice, and you do not work for Tillyard. You are keeping a record of something you chose to do.